Tom Rookyard, AuctionsPlus Market Insights
16th September, 2019
Corresponding with significantly better seasonal conditions during the past three months, the AuctionsPlus Market Insights team has seen Victorian buyers become the dominant force in the online auction space. A much wetter winter across parts of the state, especially compared to drought ravaged NSW, coupled with premiums for feeder and prime stock, has seen Victoria purchasing up to 34% of all cattle offered online on AuctionsPlus in recent months.
Victorian producers with feed, after a reasonable winter, have found themselves in a very strong position heading into the coming months - weighing up a potentially record store market and an under supplied feeder market. Many pundits are expecting a price explosion for breeding stock once there is general rain throughout New South Wales – albeit current seasonal outlooks point to this being most likely at some stage in 2020. Given the low supply of feeder cattle anticipated across the eastern for 2020, demand from feedlots is also expected to be very strong”.
Daniel Fischer of Landmark Wangaratta, through July and August has been sourcing cattle from as wide a field as Binnaway, Glen Innes, Armidale, Deepwater, Manilla, Mendooran and Dunedoo; all for clients in the North East of Victoria. ‘You just don’t see the quality lines of well vendor bred heifers on the market every day of the week; we have clients looking to the future, if and when New South Wales has good general rain, we will be able to meet a very strong breeder market”.
While Tony Hooppell from FP Nevins and Co Rochester, has clients happy to buy stock from NSW for similar reasons. “The current market means we have several options in front of us, which allows a certain level of confidence, however some clients are still wary, the price of hay and cost of irrigation is very expensive”.
Looking forward, should Victoria continue to see such a strong season this trend is not expected to slow. Daniel Fischer see’s the potential to continue to purchase both sheep and cattle from interstate, while Tony Hooppell expects more clients to take advantage of their comparatively better seasonal conditions.
While the better seasonal conditions through Victoria in 2019 has helped to sustain some competition for drought related turnoff throughout the past year in NSW, it has also help to put some constraint on the liquidation of the national breeding herd in recent years. The retaining of good breeding stock through Victoria in 2019, provides seasonal conditions adhere, may help to accelerate any eventual herd rebuilding intention when drought conditions subside in northern states.